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companies are doing, the technologically oriented companies that are part of a share economy, get more people involved in the economy in general, and creating ideas about how people can participate. we came across a very great idea that as we go through more exercises in our disaster preparedness, ann and her staff have been great at that. in fact, the last one i kind of had fun in, how do we feed 10,000 people in the middle of the tenderloin in a major erredthtion quake disaster. we walked through that. we saw how meals are served. we tried to do it in the proper way. ~ earthquake we know we're going to need a lot of help. the main message that we wanted to have was after a disaster hits, we want the message to be out before disaster, during a disaster, and right after, that we welcome everybody to participate in our recovery. and the best way to recover quickly and faster is we engage everybody immediately about how we can help and assist each other. and that's partly a philosophy of the sharing economy as well. and whether it's a need for space, people need to have space as they did
and ben. in the meantime the cost of freedom continues. >> tax hikes and a key report showing the economy is growing slowly than thought. the big reason why. tax hikes kicking in. and some at forbes say we need tax cuts to get our economy booming again. i am dave asbin. welcome to forbes on fox. we'll have steve fosh and rick and elizabeth and mike and bill baldwin. >> tax rate cuts are always a good idea. reduce the price, risk taking and success and this is the way to get the economy moving and does good things for the balance sheet. when people see prospects for growth they upthe value of assets. >> rick, this is the weakest recovery that we've had since world war ii. 2.3 million fewer people are working now than the recession. please don't blame it all on bush? >> i had forgotten about him. i have a vague memory. i would love to agree with steve. i don't like to pay taxes anymore than the next person does. there was a in- depth study by the congressional research that was skwalch by the republicans who ordered it and that survey shed that over the 40 years cutting taxes. >> oh, no, it
. for "nightly business report," i'm diana olick. >>> they say the consumer is the backbone of the economy and while the consumer is buying, it seems the rate at which the consumer has been spending is idencethe economy is on the rise. will the consumer keep the wallet open or tighten the pursestrin pursestrin pursestrin pursestrings? >> reporter: here is what to watch for in the retail sector, the second biggest season back to school. kids out grow clothing and needs new pencils but the fight to win is it. look for big promotions in marketing tactics from heavy weights like walmart and target. trying to win back sales where children's apparel makes up 12% of sales, best buy will roll out window stores in 500 locations at the end of summer as students go back to class. >>> well, one place consumers are putting moneys these day social security thes is their vehicles. it's a strong first half and they expect 15.5 million cars and trucks will be sold this year and things full throttle in the air as the airlines ride a jet stream of strong profits. phil lebeau looks what happens. >> reporter:
ahead to where he thinks the economy is headed now. >>> renowned cellist yo-yo ma makes beautiful music. but how does he make a profit? digital dollars, classical music and transformational money. "on the money" starts right now. >> announcer: this is america's number one financial news program. "on the money," now, maria bartiromo. >> what's making news as we head into a new week "on the money." the markets returned to rally mood with a bang. the dow industrials posted the best three-day winning streak in nearly a year, with triple-digit gains on tuesday, wednesday and thursday. the streak, though, was broken on friday. the move came after fed officials were out and about, saying that the fed had no immediate inattention of raising interest rates. and that the markets had misinterpreted ben bernanke's statements last week. lloyd blankfein told me -- >> chairman bernanke said we'll be very data dependent, but if the data reflects growth and very much focused on unemployment specifically, we'll taper ourselves off of quantitative easing. potentially by the end of the year. not necessaril
cuts, but senator, i'm told if he cut now, when the economy is not great, this will make unemmloyment worse. >> well here is the amazing thing about people saying that we are living in an age of off the austerity, we he not cut any spending in washington. spending still is growing, in washington. when they say if youutt spending -- if you cut spending that will cause lack of economy growth. people spend money, just who spends it, friedman had this he put it well, he said nobody spends some one else's money as wisely as they spend their own. john: you talk with your colleagues about there have been no real cuts, do they look at you like you are wrong? >> no, i think a lot of people up here understand it. people like krugman take it and demagogue an issue they know full well we're not cutting our spending we're slowing the rate growth at best. butteven that rate of growth, you saw they went crazy, the seester, the sky is falling, the same week they do, that they sent extra $250 million to egypt. they have enough money to send around the world but not enough for white house tours, that
for australia as it tries to rebalance its economy. he said australia can no longer rely on a chinese resource boom. though interest rates and a low dollar are keys to stimulating other parts of the australian economy. the reserve bank of australia has cut rates by two percent in the past 18 months. it is decided that for now, that is enough. >> that is because the aussie dollar has done a lot of work for the rba. having depreciated substantially, it is supporting growth in the various sectors of the economy, including the manufacturing industry and the service sectors that are exposed, like tourism. >> if there rebalancing act proves tricky, the rba still has moved -- room to move. towards the end of july, the consumer price index will be released, the official gauge of inflation. if it remains under control, the rba will still consider cutting rates below the record 2.75%. >> joining us to talk more about the interest rate decision and how it may impact the economy is a fellow at the brookings institution and a former legal adviser with the australian legal department of foreign affairs and
the economy is headed now. and reknowned celist? how does he make a living? "on the money" begins right now. here is what is in the news. the markets return to rally mode with a bang and fears of the fed fading. the dow posted the best 3-day winning streak triple digit gains on tuesday, wednesday and thursday and the streak was broken on friday. the move came after fed officials were out and about saying they had no intention of raising interest rates. the sentiment echoed goldman sachs who said the markets misunderstood the fed chairman. >> the chairman, chairman bernanke said, we will be very data dependant, but if the data shows growth, then we will ease ourselves and taper ourselves off, potentially by the end of the year. n not necessarily if the data does not report it. >> the annualized rate of 1.7% growth is down from a previous measure of 2.4%, it's less expected and due in part due to weaker consumptio the home price index was up and it had the biggest gain in 7 years. partly due to fewer foreclosures. the market certainly felt different this week, did anything fundamentally chang
in the economy. if it's an issue you can pose out of office but really if you follow the money according to neil irwin's book, "the alchemists," it's essential banks of the world and their unelected leaders that make the truly important decisions. to have a complex strategy, that control how the money flows and how well economies function and, frankly, how well the voting public is doing. when was the last time you voted for a member of the board of governors of the federal reserve? not. neil irwin's book is really a fascinating account of how the central banks, the federal, our federal reserve bank because and if you ask me, established monumental monetary policy is that with international markets over the years and probably kept as all from really major turmoil. likely for everyone the world is too big to fail. on a personal note as person of swedish descent, i love that the first central bank started in sweden. and, frankly, i'm tempted to put in a bill requiring that all books about history have a timeline just like yours. it's really terrific. and with that, i'll turn it over to mr. irwin.
. it makes no sense to ruin our economy in the most delicate of times. >> the continuation of the war on coal will only make matters worse, putting thousands and thousands of americans out of work. >> are they right? hi, everyone, i'm brenda buttner. this is "bulls & bears." let's get right to it. here they are, the bulls and bears this week, logan d. smith, jerry rightfield along with jerry glazer. larry, will the fight on global warming short-circuit the job market? >> it will raise costs for everyone in the form of higher electricity prices, it will be passed through to all of us. ultimately that will hurt jobs. and it is hypocritical because it is essentially going to shut down 300 coal-fired power plants without a comprehensive, long-term energy strategy to replace those plants and keep electricity flowing in our homes. that's why it's a problem. that's why it's going to hurt the economy. >> jamu? what do you think? >> we do not have to choose been the health of our kids and the health of our economy. we know when we banned leaded fuel and we banned things that were bad for our kids, the
policies to control costs, grow our economy, create jobs and stabilize our fiscal health, this year i'm proposing a budget that protects our social safety net, one that increases public safety, and one that invests in our city's infrastructure at unprecedented levels. and it is a budget that significantly grows our city's reserves. this budget is being delivered as san francisco's economy is recovering, going, and moving in the right direction. and san franciscans are getting back to work. in fact, our unemployment rate has dropped, as you all know, from 9.5% in january of 2011 to an astounding 5.4% just last month. (applause) >> i know, i know it has -- it has not been easy. we've had to work hard with our health services system, our care -- our health care providers, and labor to reduce employee health care costs. and because of our collaboration, we will now save $52 million over the next two years. and we've made tough but necessary choices on everything from escalating pension costs to reforming our unfair job punishing business tax. we've injected a healthy dose of fiscal discip
have not seen a falloff in sales. sales have been robust and the economy is gaining moment up as we go on. however, we do think it's very fragile and we in the car business are subject to an interest rate increase. >> you're selling over 15 million at an annual rate nationwide. that's a pretty hefty number and it's a great jump over last year and the year before. can you hazard a guess for me. what interest rate level would it take for you to see a slowdown or a slump in these big car sales? >> well, i think it's gradual, and certainly the consumers in my area are more interest rate sensitive because our economy is more fragile. we haven't made the recovery post the great recession that other areas have. we're consistently gaining, but we're very interest rate sensitive. so in my area, i think a 2% or 3% increase in an interest rate results in the consumer's payment going so much higher that it has to extend the terms or he has to shop more for interest rates and that becomes a very big factor in a big part of our dealership services. >> right. we've already had a 1% rise in rates and
efforts to grow the economy and hopefully we don't have to wait to have those conversations. >> okay. berry, did you want to say something? >> supervisor really hit on it fairly quickly as well. that is i was just going to ask chief sur if there is anything that our industry can do to expedited the staffing and the resources that might be needed to help in light of the economic study that has been done. we can show that entertainment and nightlife is a great part of our economy. how can we show that? >> given the money that is available in the city budget and a lot of cuts are now asking for things back, for me to ask for more would get me just as much ill will from other communities that would be an expense. we are hiring three classes a year for the next year starting last year. there was a more aggressive plan that was 54322 or i don't remember exactly, but it was each academy class is about $4 million addition to the police department budget. so it's a lot of money. >> mr. rene? >> before we leave today i would like to say something to rich van cole. dave left years ago and he ha
together and ousting what was an elected leader, that's not a great start. >> reporter: australia's economy has grown rapidly thanks mostly to mineral and coal exports to china. but the slowdown of the chinese economy has put the brakes on growth. plus, the strength of the australian dollar and the increasing cost of labor have become a burden for the manufacturing industry. a major american automaker has announced it will pull out of the country altogether. rudd is promising to reform the economy. >> there are bad things happening out there. the global economy is still experiencing the slowest of recoveries. the china resources boom is over. the time has come for us to adjust to the new challenges. >> reporter: prime minister rudd will need to regain the confidence of the electorate and business community if he wants to have any hope of winning the upcoming election and legitimizing his leadership. nhk world, sydney. >>> eu officials have come up with new rules for rescuing troubled financial institutions. they've agreed to shield taxpayers from bank failures. finance ministers from the 27
-morsi rallies erupt ed across the country last week. protesters said the economy and public security worsened after the president took power a year ago. they demanded he resign immediately. military commanders gave morsi 48 hours to resolve the crisis. he rejected the ultimatum, so the army moved in. they have deployed armored vehicles at a number of locations, but morsi supporters have barricaded roads in some parts of cairo. they say they are ready to die fighting the military. a video on the internet shows the ousted president. a spokesperson says morsi is being held at a defense ministry facility. the egyptian prosecutor's office has ordered the arrest of the top leaders of muslim brotherhood. the group supports deposed president mohamed morsi. egypt's state-run news agency says arrest warrants were issued from muslim brotherhood supreme guide mohamed bade and his deputy. prosecutors accuse the two men of inciting violence. he's seen as the top political strategist. he was the group's first choice candidate for the election a year ago. prosecutors say the two leaders ordered members of th
of efficiency and deficiencies in the economy. i mean the failure to bring egypt back to a normal standing. we have no fuel. we have no bread. there is no water. i mean, they are free but they have no friends. they have maiden mes of everybody. saudi arabia and the emirates. they have spoiled relations with them. they have spoiled the relations with the other egyptian... they think they live alone. i think it was greed of power and the feeling not to... no need to share or to acknowledge other factions of the society who don't believe in the religious state, who don't believe in this way of handling egypt, you know. >> charlie: what do you think other arab countries would say if morsi's forced to leave? >> well, i think saudi arabia made a very good statement today. it said it is is supporting the egyptian people. i think your president, for a change, should stop supporting the is muslim brotherhood and should say that he supports the egyptian people and their demand for a democratic and civil society that we are all aspiring for. i think most of the arab countries will be very happy that the
numbers are very telling. businesses are spending once again. that is good news for the economy. connell: breaking news right now. the fed improving a new set of rules. important stuff for peter barnes to cover today. peter: the fed has just approved these new international rules. stop any future tax bailouts. that is the point of all of this, folks. >> strong capital requirements are essential. we hope to have safe and sound banks that the weather financial stress while continuing to beat the financial needs of our economy. peter: the fed has already required some increases in capital. it says that most banks would meet these higher capital levels already, however, 100 regional and other banks will have to raise other capital to meet the standards. the fed announced its plans to acquire bank of america, jpmorgan chase and citigroup. they are internationally important. some banks warned that these burdens will make less money for lending. the fed says that the new rules should "benefit the financial system by reducing financial risks." connell: peter barnes on the breaking news out of wa
type of economic activity spreads through the entire economy. it is a great example of everybody working together. city economic development is the engine of our nation and we need to provide an environment with start ups that can flourish and if we do that, all the the grid lock in washington, our economy will grow. i would reach to everybody to remember that everybody has problems, every government has problems. when you look at america, we've had 235 years of dysfunction and it's doing well so far. maybe it comes with the territory. san francisco has shown how government can function and the citizens of san francisco and the whole region are benefit ting from it. we've had something like a 30 percent in tech growth. this is what we call the big app instead of the big apple. in the next decade the capital will continue to grow. last year it was like a hundred new york city based companies that acquired $1.8 billion. it's just the beginning. if you think about san francisco and new york, the future couldn't be brighter because tech business is where the business is where people
economy was under control for the first five or six years of the government. but gradually they started spending and borrowing and borrowing and spending more than the american government. and by 2,007 or eight it was out of control the same way that you experience in america. i think to be honest margaret thatcher wouldn't have done that they were a discipline in those terms and what happened right across in 2005, six, seven, eight it was reckless and paid the price. >> when margaret thatcher was first elected did you vote for her? >> i can't remember i think i would have voted for her. they were terrible times. britain did not look like a happy country in the fear that we were not ungovernable and the unions were out of control. it was a terrible time and the 70's. she didn't stop it but by then she did stop it and by the end these it was looking pretty good. we thought we had done everything right we were the most potent and prosperous country in europe and was her doing. miss panicky also wrote a book about the tories and the economy how did those two things -- most people don't put
, from cairo to istanbul turmoil in the streets. in china, japan and europe. economies under stress. what does all this instability mean for your money? >> high octane. why car buyers and truck buyers are picking them up. >> and green power, if your neighbors consume less energy than you, would you cut back? one company is begging you will and has to do with the way you think. that and more on "nightly business report" for tuesday, july 2nd. >>> good evening everyone, the world is watching egypt tonight. hundreds of thousands of protesters back in the square for a third day. they are calling for the resignation of the leader over the handling of the economy. the army gave him a deadline to strike a deal by tomorrow or be pushed aside but the president reportedly asked the army to withdrawal the decision. stocks dipped in the afternoon as oil prices rose. from cairo now, we have the latest. >> reporter: protesters are in the streets of cairo and across the country for a third night of demonstration calling on the president to step down after one year in power. you can hear the atmosphere b
for the economy, the policy and your investments. >>> mandate delayed, the business community from restaurants to retailers react to the delay of a key provision in the new healthcare law. >>> and turmoil in egypt, the unrest there is impacting oil markets here. we've got a report here from the center of it all, cairo. all that and more tonight on "nightly business report" for wednesday, july 3rd. >>> good evening everyone. the job market is looking better tonight, just the kind of encouraging news americans like to hear as they gear up for barbecues and fireworks. 1,0 -- 188,000 were hired in ju. most of the new hiring came from construction and small businesses. that could be a good sign for the labor department's labor report that comes out friday. it's an important number investors will watch closely. if strong, it could impact changes in the policy, growth in the u.s. economy and stack market. >> joining us to talk more about jobs and what he expects from the jobs report. mr. cassman, great of you to have joined us today. what is the number you're looking for? we had the adt report that w
in the economy. >> there you go. portuguese prime minister. also tolleson palit is with us. how different will this ecb meeting be as a result of the political problems that have emerged in portugal through the last three days or so? >> i would say the euro debt crisis is coming back. we see rising yields. we see increasingly political problems in various countries. only solution at the moment at least in the short run is the european central bank by providing more credit, more money and even low interest rates. i would say this is a very important meeting for investors for the european project as a whole going forward. >> is it too early to say the crisis is coming back, though. we have seen portuguese rates spike. we haven't seen the same kind of contagion we saw last time this issue flared up. so you could actually make the case that things are a lot better now. are the markets behaving more rationally? >> i take your point and i would add, however, that the debt crisis is not over because even if there is political willingness in various countries to service outstanding liabilities, t
reportthas to be the number one thing, that's going forward and the economy needs to get the stock market going and get the tapering out of the way and get the economy where it needs to go, that's the way i'm looking at it. >> we hear the opening bell and there's ruckus in the market now. and it's opening down 10 or 12 points and real quick, larry, we can't separate jobs from the fed, right? there's a transition between the federal reserve pumping in all of this liquidity, if you will, and the american economy eventually doing the work on its own? >> yeah, definitely. i mean, traders down here are concerned about that because the fed has tipped its hand and talked about the tapering and they hadn't done that before and the traders knew they could be long for an awful long time and they have been and now we've got a situation where it's not that way. when is the fed going to start pulling back and happening. and that's going to give the markets a hit and traders are afraid to be long because of that. it makes it exciting here and i'm sure your viewers like it and the markets are moving aro
and it was a great period for stocks, but gold and bond prices tanked. the economy is still bumping along at a kind of a nothing-heimer with 2% growth. get out your pen and paper and take down what our team of experts will predict for 2013. we will talk the issues, stock, gold, housing, the overall economy, plus, don't think about the fed, it's not just fed policy, but the bernanke success in sweepstakes that could rattle the markets the rest of the year. regrettably, i must also report the first half was really bullish for political scandal, irs, nsa, benghazi, doj, scandals beat bonds. all those stories and much more coming up on "the kudlow report" beginning right now. [ music playing ] . >> that's closing the books on 2013. lots of money made in stocks. elsewhere, not so much. seema mody joins us with all the details. >> good evening, larry, we are halfway through 2013. boy, did that go fast. the dow jones industrials up nearly 14% year-to-date. s&p 500 up 12.6%. take a look at the nasdaq, a major comeback after the performance in tech the composite up 12.7% in 2013. here's the real story t. yi
interesting in iran. they reflected among other things the state of the iranian economy, which in turn, of course, reflected the effectiveness of the sanctions that the united states has led and the west has put on iran, and there were discussions about the west. the economy and the situation in iran is not going to get better unless iran takes policy changes, which would improve its relationship with the west. >> but now will the united states propose some kind of package that there has -- presumably in any negotiation there has to be something in it for the iranians. we know what we want them to not do. what do they get? what's the upside? >> there's a lot in this for this iranian people and i think this is what the iranians have to consider. we have had numerous discussions with the iranians. there are any number of proposals that can be put on the table and they are awaiting an iranian response. but what will have to happen is two or three things. one, we'll have to see if iran is willing to come to the table in a bona fide way and address the international community concerns about
. they say the economy and security have worsened since he took office a year ago following the collapse of the government. many have gathered in tahrir square where security perimeters have been established. >> we will protest until the president resigns. morsi's one-year tenure is full of failures. we demand he steps down. >> morsi's islamist supporters are rallying in defense of the president. many set up tents near the presidential palace where they plan to hold sit ins. >> morsi is an elect and legitimate president. we support the president at the risk of our lives. >> health ministry officials say one was killed and 400 others injured in rival forces earlier this week. they deployed troops across the country. the number of demonstrators is expected to rise further after friday's weekly prayers. south korean president is building stronger ties with china. she began a visit to beijing by getting to know the president. now she has been talking with other chinese leaders and showing how determined she is to work with them. she spent some of her second day in china meeting senior offici
the economy has improved and unemployment rate has gone down, we took the opportunity to then say with our supervisors, when those federal cuts came we are ready to do what we need to do to fulfill those cuts and make that gap go away. we are able to do that in an i don't year budget. this is what we do for each other, we help each other out. we are not going to let hiv and aids to hurt us. we are going to continue those improvements, while we are in discrimination, this is the spirit of our city, this is a wonderful way to celebrate with every community. i want to thank leaders for being great leaders from the whole city of san francisco. this is part of our dna and i want to continue the work with the mayor's office and board of supervisors, we want more reasons to celebrate in the city and gay pride is the month for the city. with that, i want to proclaim today the start of lgbt month in san francisco, pride month. [ applause ] >> and with that, if you join me to unfurl this flag to let everybody in the world that not only are we alive and well, we have many reasons to celebrate. thank
investment in the south african economy for mutual benefit. we have placed on the table bankable projects which range from infrastructure development to skills development for the youth and also across a number of sectors like information and communication technologies, agriculture, and the economy. with these investments should be the drive for declaration, industrialization and localization of supply and manufacture. mr. president, youth development is a key forecast area for south africa given that a third of our population is under the age of 15. this is a key feature of a national development plan. therefore we welcome education, especially the school capacity and innovation program as well as investment in primary education and teacher training. it is also our wish to extend corporation on vocational training to develop our further education and training. we are in the area of defense under the auspices of the south africa/u.s. defense training and services in crime fighting. we have loaded the successful health corporation under the u.s. president emergency plan for aids relief fun
summit. jp morgan's private bank chief office and more smart calls on the economy than anybody. richard, let's start with you. you say the fed is not going to go cold turkey, which is certainly what mr. doubly seems to be saying, if i infer from that you think this is not a bad time to invest and be in the stock markets. it ain't over. >> we've been in stock markets and took advantage of the week four to actually add into equity. i think the big debate for me is continuing to make this an event and it's going to be a process and the process is protracted with slow growth, low inflation and a corporate sector that we've ever seen stronger. the one thing that does have to change is people's expectations on returns need to come down a little bit. >> do you think, richard, that we have over done it on fed talk? have they got off track from basics like earnings, revenues and corporate strategy? >> some of it is just emotion. at the end of the day we forget that markets are people, and we've had a market that for the most part has gone up in one direction for 12 months. when you go up that fa
and religion but not to revive the economy and here we are. >> if it is all about the economy. pele a standing in lines for hours to get transportation fuelnd food the economy has outlined at least under mubarak was 8 percent but the poverty rate is 10% greater than one year ago. them up muslim brotherhood has mismanaged this economy that pele are in the streets in greater numbers than just two years ago. lori: so morsi rejected the ultimatum refusing to step down of looking at the possibility of a military couponight? >> i don't think that is what the military wants to do i think they want the politicians to resolve the differences to get the economy back on track. because the military generals themselves are heard as well but merck -- morsi feels he doesave legitimacy and he did win thelection one ye ago and the muslim brotherhood won two-thirds of the egyptian parliament. so when you hear the military overturning the elections or constitution constitution, you can imagine whateaction that will produce in the muslim brotherhood and that is a prescription for much greater violence. lori: but
on jobs because i really believe that people can get those jobs and be part of the economy. and we're going to make sure whether it's big medium or small a they'll survive here and the supervisors will work with me to sustain this. so mr. temple used the word bubble he's always trying to get me on the bubble it will not burst if our hearts lead this economy. if all walks of life and all cultures get to participate. this can welcome in one or two people with ideas but can't afford the expensive rent by wants to start with a great idea and this is where it starts. this is why it's so incredible we have those hubs of business support. it's a model i think is going to work with a sharing economy. and the sharing economy is not just for small businesses it means all the other large companies get to use their philanthropy to support the community. that's y what i envision. i think it's just the dna that san francisco has that's why we're beating out so many other cities as adams vision it's also going back going to be reflected and we'll build stronger community. that's the philosophy. a
consumer spending up. we had housing numbers up and that gives economy, it is strong and now we come back into the eequilibrium. >> you have strong leadership in the market. >> i want it make a point about what he was saying moments ago. when you have good news, that's a good thing. not to use good to be things. but remember when we used to have bad things, and the stimulus and keep feeding from the punch bowl but it is good we have good economic data and good gains in the stock market as well. i hope that is something we continue to see. >> yeah. i think you make a good point. it is funny to hear so many goods, but i totally understand what you are saying. so tim leach, do you want it invest in the areas that are really sort of manifesting that growth, cyclicals, and companies with economic ties to the company. >> very much so. we believe in the underlining strength, even if some of the bun punch bowl leaked, probably around this fall. we like the cyclical names. industrial, technology, consumer discretionary to pick a few. >> all right. we will leave it there. tim, mandy, good to see yo
for the economy. there have been much discussions about where they're starting to recover and the spending is going to be supported for the u.s. economy. i want to delve into this a little bit more. joining us on the set is a senior fellow at goldman foundation. nice to have you on board with us. >> good morning. >> the market out there is trying to interpret the data points. this is what ben bernanke has forced the market to do is take a look at the numbers. the numbers are strong. does that mean tapering is not going to happen. >> tapering is not going to happen, karen, i think it's as simple as that. as soon as you put up interest rates, the cost of the deficit increases which governments don't like. more importantly, as soon as interest rates go up then it destabilizes the banks. the banks begin to potentially implode from the weakest point. the banks have enormous amounts of government debt, fixed interest, higher yield, lower price which starts wiping out their very, very slim capital base but also there is a huge amount of interest rate swap derivatives. the bank for international s
about the recovery in those countries. >> yeah. i mean, stabilization still means that the economy is quite below that peak gdp. what happens next for the ecb? they've got a meeting this week. do they stay pat for a long time? there's this chatter around whether they should or shouldn't talk about coming out with a statement about where rates will be. >> i would be doubtful if you'd get a formal statement as to where rates are going to be. i think the ecb has two conflicting issues here. one are the pmi data which is showing a gradual improvement in the underlying economy. then on the other side, you have the increase in bond yields that we've seen over the last few weeks. the ecb has kind of a complicated position at the moment. i would very much doubt that it would actually do anything on the monetary policy side this week, though i suspect it will sound very dovish in order to try to limit any increase in market interest rates. >> all right. stay there. >>> meanwhile, china, things not so easy for manufacturers in that country. the hsbc pmi data in june, the lowest in nine month
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